05. Peeking Under the Hood

AI For Trading C6 L1 A03 Peeking Under The Hood V2

Exploring Linear Regression in Machine Learning

Machine learning models aim to make accurate predictions based on data. This guide focuses on linear regression, a fundamental and widely applicable technique.

Concepts:

  • Variables:
    • Independent Variable (x): A controlled input such as study hours.
    • Dependent Variable (y): A result such as test grades.
  • Regression Line: A line predicting y based on x, seeking the best overall fit.

Evaluating Fit:

  • Goal: Minimize errors between predicted values (y_hat) and true values (y).
  • Prediction Error: Measured by the difference between y_hat and y.
    • Residuals: Errors for each x-y pair.
  • Aggregated Error Metrics:
    • Mean Absolute Error (MAE): Average of absolute differences; not always preferred due to non-differentiability.
    • Mean Squared Error (MSE): Average of squared errors, preferred for differentiation.

Cost Function:

  • Function: Quantifies how well a model fits data by summing all errors.
  • Minimizing Cost: Core goal for most machine learning models.

Understanding these concepts helps grasp how machine learning models optimize to achieve accurate predictions.

What is the point of a cost (loss) function in linear regression?

SOLUTION: It measures how well the linear model's predictions match the actual data points.

QUIZ QUESTION::

Match each of the descriptions with the item they describe.

ANSWER CHOICES:



Description

Term

a cost function that measures the sum of the the absolute value of residuals

a cost function that has some desirable mathematical properties but is sensitive to outliers

the difference between a predicted value and the ground truth (actual value)

the objective of a linear regression model is finding this entity

SOLUTION:

Description

Term

the objective of a linear regression model is finding this entity

the difference between a predicted value and the ground truth (actual value)

a cost function that has some desirable mathematical properties but is sensitive to outliers

a cost function that measures the sum of the the absolute value of residuals